Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11241

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.068). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11240, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11241
    26 Oct 2026, 21:55 UTC

    RPL27

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPL27 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf2a1e7b043080894

    discovery+0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.068)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    879e255b0adee44128232611…
    follows d72293389b9f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11265 (2026-10-26 22:29 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11241: RPL27 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18), 95% CI +0.05 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.44 to +0.67, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPL27 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.