Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11233

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.638). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11232, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11233
    26 Oct 2026, 21:44 UTC

    POLR2D

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPOLR2D in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered851007bc21f40852

    discovery+0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.638)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ed69868243496f0e4126cc8a…
    follows 4d235ef027e4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11237 (2026-10-26 21:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11233: POLR2D in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.71 (p 8.7e-4, n 18) vs +0.21 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for POLR2D in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up POLR2D · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.38 p 0.183 (needs p < 1.9e-4)