Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11229

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11228, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11229
    26 Oct 2026, 21:38 UTC

    GHRHR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGHRHR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda43bdebac3139512

    discovery+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0f292eaf0247e85fd74ad2df…
    follows 0387c647acd2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11237 (2026-10-26 21:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11229: GHRHR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GHRHR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.