Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11224

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.118). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11223, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11224
    26 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC

    BCL7B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBCL7B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered82d48d8a6c02594b

    discovery-0.56 p=0.118 n=9

    replication-0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.118)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    15160849fa51a052c81c465b…
    follows a755a7382f1c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11237 (2026-10-26 21:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11224: BCL7B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.054, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BCL7B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.