Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11218

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11217, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11218
    26 Oct 2026, 21:21 UTC

    PCDH1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPCDH1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered94111461cac4ed6c

    discovery-0.40 p=0.285 n=9

    replication-0.43 p=0.244 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2f432e08d3867e6a6febb7ff…
    follows 80835b486978…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11237 (2026-10-26 21:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11218: PCDH1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PCDH1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.