Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11216

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11215, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11216
    26 Oct 2026, 21:19 UTC

    DAP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDAP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda3635e911100de2f

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication-0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5cc1376db31a16cf17acfb1b…
    follows 324205a5ce3f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11237 (2026-10-26 21:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11216: DAP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DAP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.