Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11214

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11213, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11214
    26 Oct 2026, 21:16 UTC

    ZMIZ1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZMIZ1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered71f3161583d3ed1c

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication-0.76 p=0.016 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f24dacafe455d60053b0d8ab…
    follows 81bc0c682c6b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11237 (2026-10-26 21:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11214: ZMIZ1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.054, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.49 (p 0.041, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.61 (p 0.0067, n 18) vs -0.46 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZMIZ1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ZMIZ1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.10 p 0.722 (needs p < 1.9e-4)