Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11212

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.83 p 0.0054; held-out +0.04 p 0.909). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11211, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11212
    26 Oct 2026, 21:13 UTC

    SLC6A7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC6A7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1b2efdf829ea3456

    discovery-0.83 p=0.0054 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.83 p 0.0054; held-out +0.04 p 0.909)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    cd73aebf21ca45e25606e682…
    follows 72deff26130f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11237 (2026-10-26 21:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11212: SLC6A7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.074, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.62 (p 0.0060, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC6A7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.