Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11205

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11204, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11205
    26 Oct 2026, 21:02 UTC

    ACADVL

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionACADVL in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered24c6679f25e20923

    discovery-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.539 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d687f0769dbbee64739c36e9…
    follows 67cf09fd392e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11209 (2026-10-26 21:09 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11205: ACADVL in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACADVL in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.