Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11190

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.753). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11189, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11190
    26 Oct 2026, 20:40 UTC

    RAD23A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRAD23A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1647a868a6a0e9ad

    discovery-0.12 p=0.753 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.326 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.753)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6b6d04ab6767d37f28fe9b15…
    follows 71da76b666b7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11209 (2026-10-26 21:09 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11190: RAD23A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAD23A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.