Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11187

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.484). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11186, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11187
    26 Oct 2026, 20:37 UTC

    CD53

    microglia, braak

    predictionCD53 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered72d78da4ff560212

    discovery-0.27 p=0.484 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.484)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fe9305061294a4e7bb5e87e8…
    follows 0d455ac90f12…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11209 (2026-10-26 21:09 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11187: CD53 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.13, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD53 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.