Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11173

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.38, p 0.309). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11172, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11173
    26 Oct 2026, 20:18 UTC

    CCDC42

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCDC42 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9f332fc331b35c75

    discovery+0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    replication-0.62 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.38, p 0.309)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e0d512f45d0522ec0a54e56a…
    follows e7fadaf91c7f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11184 (2026-10-26 20:34 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11173: CCDC42 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCDC42 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.