Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11167

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.138). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11166, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11167
    26 Oct 2026, 20:10 UTC

    PRELP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRELP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered86198d0b4ca6e04d

    discovery-0.53 p=0.138 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.699 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.138)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3fe620835368f6cb697885b6…
    follows fc76257665a0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11184 (2026-10-26 20:34 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11167: PRELP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRELP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.