Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11163

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.753). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11162, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11163
    26 Oct 2026, 20:04 UTC

    CA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda1a3347f6221c262

    discovery+0.12 p=0.753 n=9

    replication+0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.753)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1a19cf3f03cc98465ecc991c…
    follows f6a5e10e4642…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11184 (2026-10-26 20:34 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11163: CA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.31 (p 0.214, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.