Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11153

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11152, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11153
    26 Oct 2026, 19:50 UTC

    CDK18

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCDK18 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda3dcf0e9931a0876

    discovery-0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5a9b7ba819950455c1c673bd…
    follows 3e03b7751d8e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11157 (2026-10-26 19:54 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11153: CDK18 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.493, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDK18 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.