Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11119

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.243). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11118, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11119
    26 Oct 2026, 19:04 UTC

    KIAA0319L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKIAA0319L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered22861a444e1061b1

    discovery-0.43 p=0.243 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.243)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0c59147a050369234c436a79…
    follows 02afb9bd9613…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11130 (2026-10-26 19:19 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11119: KIAA0319L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.14, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.67 (p 0.0022, n 18) vs +0.01 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KIAA0319L in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up KIAA0319L · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.75 p 0.0077 (needs p < 2.0e-4)