Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11117

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.485). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11116, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11117
    26 Oct 2026, 19:01 UTC

    CUL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCUL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredeb2a7302bd22321b

    discovery+0.27 p=0.485 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.219 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.485)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3652d11e3acbc5f92a5e8c25…
    follows 1beeae432dbb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11130 (2026-10-26 19:19 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11117: CUL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CUL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.