Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11102

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.80 p 0.0093; held-out -0.15 p 0.705). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11101, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11102
    26 Oct 2026, 18:39 UTC

    BDH2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBDH2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda6947e4636590d4f

    discovery+0.80 p=0.0093 n=9

    replication-0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.80 p 0.0093; held-out -0.15 p 0.705)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    9b86d60687ea09acfa7d3084…
    follows 227a19879238…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11102 (2026-10-26 18:39 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11102: BDH2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BDH2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.