Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0111

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.19, p 0.468). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 110, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0111
    16 Oct 2026, 16:46 UTC

    ADRB1

    astrocytes, resilience

    predictionADRB1 in astrocytes differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registeredf1dd5f3bcde99375

    discovery-0.19 p=0.468 n=25

    replication+0.19 p=0.542 n=30

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.19, p 0.468)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0844977b6fa566bd9eadf908…
    follows e3e4875354cd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0111: ADRB1 in astrocytes, resilience

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.916, n 55), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.05 (p 0.817, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.34 (p 0.084); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.705, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.07, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.928, n 46). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: +0.54 (p 0.0062, n 55) vs -0.02 in astrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for ADRB1 in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up ADRB1 · dopamine neurons · resilience: ventral tegmental area +0.17 p 0.345 (needs p < 0.0029)