Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11093

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11092, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11093
    26 Oct 2026, 18:25 UTC

    GNAI2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGNAI2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered33a57c03d78df378

    discovery-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.56 p=0.118 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e96a333b514b7fa2ebf06ad8…
    follows fdc01bd7bd4b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11102 (2026-10-26 18:39 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11093: GNAI2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.07. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.64 to -0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.60 (p 0.0080, n 18) vs -0.52 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GNAI2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GNAI2 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured