Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11082

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.697). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11081, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11082
    26 Oct 2026, 18:08 UTC

    RNF214

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRNF214 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaceaaa3ba9405a3f

    discovery+0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.348 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.697)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    58d5152c3f4d0441195f08d5…
    follows d53d74b7db39…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11102 (2026-10-26 18:39 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11082: RNF214 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RNF214 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.