Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11055

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.347). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11054, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11055
    26 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC

    CLSTN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCLSTN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8e993470b4a6b128

    discovery-0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.128 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.347)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1cec6a3072eee8fc33db8b80…
    follows 3f37a7a19e4d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11075 (2026-10-26 17:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11055: CLSTN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.15, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CLSTN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.