Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11001

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.855). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11000, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11001
    26 Oct 2026, 16:19 UTC

    BACH2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBACH2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9c2fc331c7a2b6b4

    discovery+0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.855)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    415bb0e021e4608634a0cf1b…
    follows 3b19f70c4e36…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11025 (2026-10-26 16:53 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11001: BACH2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BACH2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.