Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10965

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.59, p 0.096). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10964, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10965
    26 Oct 2026, 15:20 UTC

    RBP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRBP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7f5feb71c664df8c

    discovery+0.59 p=0.096 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.504 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.59, p 0.096)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c987ae1b1ac8bf5918d53253…
    follows ba6b27f17c4b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10974 (2026-10-26 15:38 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10965: RBP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18) vs +0.10 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RBP1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RBP1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.50 p 0.076 (needs p < 2.0e-4)