Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10949

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.576). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10948, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10949
    26 Oct 2026, 14:58 UTC

    ARPP19

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARPP19 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered153498f6971a4396

    discovery+0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    replication+0.49 p=0.182 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.576)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d7bd8888a7bca7f2779bfa6f…
    follows 3447a42256bf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10974 (2026-10-26 15:38 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10949: ARPP19 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARPP19 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.