Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10928

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.456). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10927, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10928
    26 Oct 2026, 14:31 UTC

    PACS2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPACS2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered706d09027192c08f

    discovery-0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    replication-0.65 p=0.058 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.456)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9fd5ea293b0d95029c243d21…
    follows b0bff36e1c80…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10945 (2026-10-26 14:53 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10928: PACS2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PACS2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.