Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10918

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.173). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10917, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10918
    26 Oct 2026, 14:20 UTC

    RERE

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRERE in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered43a6eecf2bb246ec

    discovery-0.50 p=0.173 n=9

    replication+0.40 p=0.288 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.173)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    239c0b52697f5be8b636e7aa…
    follows e07d5c90b09f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10945 (2026-10-26 14:53 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10918: RERE in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RERE in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.