Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10908

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.304). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10907, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10908
    26 Oct 2026, 14:06 UTC

    NOL3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNOL3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered271b32cfc0a7f8b5

    discovery-0.39 p=0.304 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.304)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7c93623d4d12c64d29f736e1…
    follows f6c8f0bf6428…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10917 (2026-10-26 14:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10908: NOL3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.62 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NOL3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.