Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10901

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.875). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10900, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10901
    26 Oct 2026, 13:55 UTC

    PPP1CC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPP1CC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfae3b4f46d77500a

    discovery+0.06 p=0.875 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.875)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d0d0afe925769badd059c74e…
    follows 30942f3bdc1a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10917 (2026-10-26 14:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10901: PPP1CC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP1CC in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.