Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10898

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10897, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10898
    26 Oct 2026, 13:52 UTC

    ALDOC

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionALDOC in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1bbcf3c91e245340

    discovery-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.101 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8a1703b7e67772163ff7c272…
    follows 811cfb5a624e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10917 (2026-10-26 14:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10898: ALDOC in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: +0.66 (p 0.0030, n 18) vs -0.43 in astrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ALDOC in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ALDOC · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.43 p 0.131 (needs p < 2.0e-4)