Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10894

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.84 p 0.0043; held-out -0.21 p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10893, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10894
    26 Oct 2026, 13:47 UTC

    PSMD7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPSMD7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5d01bacc1377274c

    discovery+0.84 p=0.0043 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.84 p 0.0043; held-out -0.21 p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    c8e8bbc98c7f88942090e3da…
    follows d500ca4dac31…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10917 (2026-10-26 14:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10894: PSMD7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PSMD7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.