Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10889

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10888, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10889
    26 Oct 2026, 13:39 UTC

    KIR3DL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKIR3DL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0da62b5c71ee1927

    discovery-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6c0f3d6d1f1033b8df220646…
    follows ca30aa0079a6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10891 (2026-10-26 13:43 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10889: KIR3DL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KIR3DL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.