Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10862

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.281). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10861, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10862
    26 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC

    PDIK1L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPDIK1L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb44d73f0cde91502

    discovery+0.40 p=0.281 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.281)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7950833f3a17ace0c06a9423…
    follows f78e227fa210…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10862: PDIK1L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.15, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDIK1L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.