Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10849

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10848, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10849
    26 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC

    RAPGEF3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionRAPGEF3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcb419839bf7ecdca

    discovery+0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    replication+0.52 p=0.153 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c5a39e6a76e8935130c7aeb0…
    follows ca6502685dbe…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10849: RAPGEF3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.67 (p 0.0022, n 18) vs +0.21 in astrocytes. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAPGEF3 in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RAPGEF3 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 2.0e-4)