Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10803

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10802, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10803
    26 Oct 2026, 11:39 UTC

    MAN1A2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAN1A2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6536d810eb0b0586

    discovery+0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.212 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d00cd66ed0592378012c945e…
    follows 29721984f58a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10803: MAN1A2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.646, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: +0.61 (p 0.0067, n 18) vs +0.12 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAN1A2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MAN1A2 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.43 p 0.131 (needs p < 2.0e-4)