Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10782

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.116). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10781, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10782
    26 Oct 2026, 11:11 UTC

    WLS

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionWLS in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7be35d23373b1600

    discovery+0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.724 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.116)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a102de2ae5c9b521c4577c28…
    follows 63cb0b41be34…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10782: WLS in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WLS in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.