Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10768

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.749). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10767, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10768
    26 Oct 2026, 10:52 UTC

    GNG7

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGNG7 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddb97df0183c3c279

    discovery+0.12 p=0.749 n=9

    replication-0.39 p=0.300 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.749)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d292ec6e2b5473e7cd5953d4…
    follows c578f83c05fd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10768: GNG7 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.591, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GNG7 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.