Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10758

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.058). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10757, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10758
    26 Oct 2026, 10:35 UTC

    SLC37A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC37A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8324699e1b6781b5

    discovery-0.65 p=0.058 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.929 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.058)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    917a0c43eb51e52bcc28c265…
    follows 3c54b5a8bc0a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10758: SLC37A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18) vs -0.35 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC37A1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SLC37A1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.20 p 0.477 (needs p < 2.1e-4)