Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10733

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10732, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10733
    26 Oct 2026, 10:02 UTC

    SPON1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSPON1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6e734ea617705649

    discovery-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5eb13852c3ba20c6b27787b9…
    follows b650d3d8ae50…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10733: SPON1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.15, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPON1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.