Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10722

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.539). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10721, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10722
    26 Oct 2026, 09:46 UTC

    CAMTA2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCAMTA2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf76e61e4ef8089ad

    discovery+0.24 p=0.539 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.265 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.539)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e48c2e8e29996db9ab72a6d8…
    follows a2b2e3be4292…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10722: CAMTA2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18) vs -0.18 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CAMTA2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CAMTA2 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.35 p 0.214 (needs p < 2.1e-4)