Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10682

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10681, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10682
    26 Oct 2026, 08:53 UTC

    AREL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAREL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1649f65b34098510

    discovery-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.925 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5b62721d3a8cb6a91d76c255…
    follows b286f173e759…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10682: AREL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AREL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.