Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10664

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.60, p 0.090). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10663, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10664
    26 Oct 2026, 08:28 UTC

    MRPS6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMRPS6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbd7d3fbb22eed1e7

    discovery+0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    replication-0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.60, p 0.090)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b658fda7d0e551a6bcf599a3…
    follows 499b5ce0f757…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10664: MRPS6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.21, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MRPS6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.