Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10658

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.773). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10657, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10658
    26 Oct 2026, 08:20 UTC

    KCNJ4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKCNJ4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8f6035b665bb61ed

    discovery-0.11 p=0.773 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.773)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    839386f7e416747690372f1b…
    follows 8692fc3fcb9b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10658: KCNJ4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNJ4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.