Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10645

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.536). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10644, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10645
    26 Oct 2026, 08:01 UTC

    PTGDR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPTGDR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd04c89615e8b812d

    discovery+0.24 p=0.536 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.768 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.536)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    864f027f0a57ab25d39011d3…
    follows a51b54663743…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10645: PTGDR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.33 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PTGDR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.