Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10632

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10631, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10632
    26 Oct 2026, 07:44 UTC

    ACAT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionACAT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc67e8d472e5f185d

    discovery+0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d1cb337e2497e647296b13c3…
    follows aebe15f8f972…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10632: ACAT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACAT1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.