Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10626

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.545). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10625, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10626
    26 Oct 2026, 07:36 UTC

    EDN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEDN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd5350d451a58efa4

    discovery-0.23 p=0.545 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.082 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.545)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c163c545c933d7180e8d6279…
    follows 0029f34553cd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10626: EDN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EDN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.