Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10602

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.485). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10601, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10602
    26 Oct 2026, 07:06 UTC

    COL4A5

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCOL4A5 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6cdfb3f865f63ead

    discovery-0.27 p=0.485 n=9

    replication+0.74 p=0.023 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.485)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4ce35275fab50373bd12bcf3…
    follows c4e3b349d4fc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10602: COL4A5 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.17 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COL4A5 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.