Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10585

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.545). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10584, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10585
    26 Oct 2026, 06:41 UTC

    NFKBIZ

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNFKBIZ in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7db13d4700356290

    discovery+0.23 p=0.545 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.545)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    db17db50d9449f5a187d8127…
    follows edb49f9be3de…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10585: NFKBIZ in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: +0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18) vs +0.30 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NFKBIZ in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NFKBIZ · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.40 p 0.155 (needs p < 2.1e-4)