Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10564

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.962). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10563, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10564
    26 Oct 2026, 06:14 UTC

    SLC9A9

    microglia, braak

    predictionSLC9A9 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7eccb7f3f505841c

    discovery-0.02 p=0.962 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.962)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    24f5124f909d056bb08e1545…
    follows 1e97aef5ace7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10564: SLC9A9 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.00, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC9A9 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.