Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10545

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.639). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10544, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10545
    26 Oct 2026, 05:49 UTC

    SH3GLB1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSH3GLB1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered00fb958b57c483a0

    discovery+0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.172 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.639)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3fa15d4e7f0632eb5b1e64e3…
    follows e92ceda90f7e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10545: SH3GLB1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.107, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SH3GLB1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.